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Is the rally over in long-duration bonds?

Updated at : 2025-08-13 13:30:02

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After a period of impressive returns, India s long-duration government securities may be nearing the end of their rally, according to Axis Mutual Fund. The surge was fueled by factors like policy easing and fiscal discipline. However, the report suggests these catalysts are losing momentum. Deteriorating demand-supply dynamics and regulatory changes are reducing the appetite for long-duration bonds.

NMDC shares experienced a rise of 2.5% following the announcement of robust first-quarter results for fiscal year 2026. Revenue saw a significant increase, driven by higher iron ore production and sales. While profit dipped slightly, operational performance was strong. The company holds substantial investments in various subsidiaries and joint ventures, both domestically and internationally.

India’s fixed income market remains steady despite global uncertainty. With inflation below the RBI’s target and yields expected to stay in a narrow range, Canara Robeco’s Avnish Jain advises focusing on short- to medium-term debt funds for better risk-adjusted returns, while keeping selective long-duration exposure for potential policy easing gains.

DBS Bank expects Federal Reserve rate cuts soon. However, tariffs may increase inflation beyond three percent by 2026. This complicates the Fed s role. Companies are negotiating discounts and absorbing costs. Consumers will eventually bear the tariff burden. This process will erode US competitiveness. The full impact will unfold over the next six to twelve months.

Ethereum has significantly outperformed the broader crypto market, surging 41% in the past month, driven by strong ETF inflows and positive sentiment. Bitcoin has shown resilience, rebounding to a 10-day high of $119,000 amid geopolitical tensions. Experts suggest potential pullbacks for Ethereum if it fails to surpass $4,350, while Bitcoin eyes resistance between $117,335 and $123,250.

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Blackstone Inc. s Horizon Industrial Parks is exploring a Mumbai IPO in the coming year, potentially raising around $500 million. The Indian company is in discussions with banks, targeting an enterprise valuation of $4 billion. Horizon Industrial Parks, established in 2022, operates 40 industrial and logistics parks across India.

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Dipan Mehta of Elixir Equities anticipates a sideways market trend in the coming months. He emphasizes stock selection across sectors. Earnings season has been disappointing with only 5.4% profit growth. Liquidity prevents market decline, but fundamentals don t justify a rally. Nykaa s impressive performance stands out in the BPC segment. High valuations remain a concern for growth companies.

A 5-year swing high represents the highest price a stock has reached within a five-year timeframe. This level acts as a significant resistance point where the price has historically struggled to go beyond.

HAL shares: HAL reported a 3.7% YoY drop in Q1FY26 net profit to ₹1,383.77 crore despite a 10.8% revenue rise to ₹4,819.01 crore, driven by stronger execution and demand. Net profit fell 65.2% QoQ due to seasonal and project delivery factors. Net worth stood at ₹34,985.17 crore as of March 2025.

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