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Sellers for now, FPIs may rethink Indian equities

Updated at : 2025-08-18 07:55:01

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FPIs intensified selling in Indian equities in early August due to US import duties, selling ₹20,974.9 crore worth of equities. Despite this outflow, a recent credit rating upgrade by S&P and potential GST reforms offer hope for improved investor sentiment. Domestic mutual funds have increased their investments to partially offset the FPI selling pressure.

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Asian stock markets edged higher, with the Nikkei reaching a new high, as investors anticipate the Jackson Hole symposium and potential shifts in U.S. interest rate policy. Oil prices slipped amid easing concerns about Russian supply disruptions, while the dollar remained defensive ahead of the Fed conference. Markets are pricing in a high probability of a September rate cut.

Defense stocks and energy markets are in focus as European leaders support Ukraine amid U.S.-Russia talks. Investors anticipate increased European defense spending due to potential shifts in U.S. policy towards Russia, particularly regarding Arctic energy exploration. This geopolitical shift could lead to a deep energy bear market, impacting Brent crude prices and Ukrainian government bonds.

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Rakesh Jhunjhunwala s unmatched investing success, fueled by leverage and astute stock picks like Titan, remains a benchmark. While today s investors follow a similar strategy of identifying undervalued stocks, few match Jhunjhunwala s risk appetite or benefited from the market inefficiencies of the past. Replicating his success in the current environment, with tighter regulations and richer valuations, appears exceedingly difficult.

Corporates are likely to increase bank borrowing as the gap between SBI s lending rates and bond yields shrinks. This spread, which had widened significantly, has now decreased, making bank loans more attractive. SBI anticipates double-digit growth in corporate loan demand as companies find bank financing more cost-effective than the bond market, especially with anticipated MCLR adjustments.

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After a six-week decline, Nifty 50 showed positive signs, facing resistance at 24,800 and support at 24,200. Analysts predict a 24,200-24,800 range in the near term, with a potential rally towards 28,000 based on Elliott Wave Theory. Experts suggest accumulating quality large-caps in sectors like defence, pharma, and autos, highlighting stocks like L&T and Reliance.

In the past month, 10 penny stocks gained 15–80%, with three rising over 50%. Screened for low price, small market cap, and strong trading volumes, these stocks show sharp momentum. However, risks remain high due to volatility, liquidity issues, and more.

Nifty remained range-bound on Thursday ahead of the Trump–Putin meeting, with support seen at 24,337 and resistance at 24,660–24,850. Analysts recommend two stocks for Monday: UNO Minda, offering up to 6% upside, and Manappuram Finance, with 5% upside, both showing bullish breakouts supported by strong technical indicators.

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