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Indian stock markets ended the last week of May with strong gains and have begun the June series on a positive note; the Nifty50 gained 1.63% for the week and crossed the resistance of 18,400 to close at 18,499.35. Investors are advised to remain cautious as we approach the June series expiry. Markets will take cues from Wall Street, which will remain closed on Memorial Day. The week will also bring several important domestic and global economic events for investors to track, along with the possible impact of movements in the US debt ceiling, crude oil prices, and government bond yields on market performance.

​VWAP or Volume Weighted Average Price is the average price of a stock, adjusted for its volume.​

The combined market valuation of seven of the top-ten most valued firms jumped Rs 1,51,140.39 crore last week, with Reliance Industries and Tata Consultancy Services emerging as the biggest gainers. While Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Infosys, State Bank of India and Bharti Airtel made gains in their market valuation, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and HDFC faced erosion

“The 4% less monsoon rainfall than the long period average of 100% can be attributed to an expected El Nino event in the Pacific. At present, in the equatorial Pacific, neutral conditions are there. However, model forecasts are showing that and the temperature are also seen warming over that region. Most of the models are indicating that in the next 2-3 months it will reach El Nino conditions.”

Gold prices closed the week with a loss of 1.60% at $1945.74, with the US dollar index recording a weekly gain of about 1% to reach 104.23, and 10-year US yields at 3.79% on Friday. Mixed US data releases on 27 May were mostly positive for the dollar and negative for bonds and gold, with real personal spending showing strength at 0.50%. A debt ceiling deal between US policymakers remained possible ahead of the 6-9 June date, boosting macroeconomic sentiment and hitting gold.

“It has been a while since Reliance Industries consolidated. The earnings were pretty strong. The O2C segment did pretty well while Jio continues and retail continues to get more traction. Also, the demerger of Jio Financial Services was another small trigger and the market was valuing it at about Rs 200-220.

The tentative deal between President Biden and Kevin McCarthy to raise the US debt ceiling may have negative consequences for financial markets. Once the deal has passed, the government is expected to make large bond issuances, which could lead to a liquidity drain from banks and cause financing to become more expensive for companies already struggling in a high-interest rate environment. Some banks fear that markets have not yet accounted for this risk, and some warn that delaying the resolution could cause volatility in the market. However, some believe that the drain on liquidity could be absorbed by money market mutual funds.

“I do sense that there is a growing appetite for equity amongst the HNIs and family offices as well. And that trend is going to continue. And this entire piece of financialisation or savings is certainly very beneficial for Indian equities. As such, we have been in a decent bull market right from the lows of the pandemic.”

We enter a “decisive” week; going by the technical setup on the charts, markets may look at initiating a definite directional bias this week and whatever trend it catches on may stay on at least for the short term.

Sundar has settled a case with markets regulator Sebi by returning the advisory fee and disgorging over Rs 6 crore. The case related to PR Sundar and Mangayarkarasi Sundar, promoters of Mansun Consulting, offering investment advice without the necessary registration from the market regulator.