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Further, capital flows will be dictated by the global developments, particularly the trends in the dollar index and US bond yields. This, in turn, will be determined by the trajectory of US inflation, said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

US Fed rate hikes continue to halt gold’s uptrend

Updated at : 2022-12-18 14:20:03

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In the key London market, though prices revisited their all-time of $2070 an ounce in March, it broadly traded choppy with negative rest of the year. Russian invasion of Ukraine, the multi-year high US dollar, and aggressive policy measures taken by central banks across the globe influenced the trend of the yellow metal.

The benchmark index Nifty has now sneaked below the key swing low of 18,350 on a closing basis. Ideally, looking at the price structure, the development does not augur well for bulls. A close below this support opens the possibility of an extended correction in the coming week

From the options front, sharp decline post Fed meet has resulted in heavy Call writing at ATM and OTM strike. While the put base is at ATM 18300 strike, Call bases are much stronger at 18400 and higher strikes. Hence a move above 18400 should be looked for fresh longs in the index.

Warren Buffett, a legendary investor of our times, has given a simple formula to beat markets - “Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy”. What Buffett means is to buy low and sell high. Sounds like common sense. Yet, most investors tend to do the opposite.

The domestic consumption growth for soybean meal is attributed to the increasing appetite for eggs, poultry meat, and fish which has resulted in an increase in the broiler, layer, and aquaculture production. Poultry meat production constitutes 50% of India’s total meat production.

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“Nifty spot has closed the week in red and that too below the support of 18350. There is also a negative crossover of 5 and 20 DEMA. Along with this, there is Head and Shoulder pattern breakdown on the intraday chart. Thus, this technical rationale indicates that the pessimism might continue and drag the index towards 18000-17800 in the coming week,” Mehul Kothari - AVP-Technical Research, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers, said.

A similar scenario may unfold in the UK and euro-zone as their respective central banks ratchet up interest rates despite increasing risks to fragile growth.

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Inflation prints and real interest rates in India and those reported by the western economies have been converging which is of paramount importance in determining the course of INR.

In light of the fact that the market seems to be showing strong support near 18000 until this level is breached, we are able to conclude that this is should be a normal profit booking process.

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