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Nifty has violated the 20-Week MA on the weekly charts and also the 100-DMA. In the process, the index has dragged its resistance points lower. The coming week has strong resistance at 17,750 and 17,860 levels. Supports come in at 17,400 and 17,250 levels.

We expect the fiscal deficit to consolidate to 5.8% of GDP in FY24. Gross tax revenue growth is likely to moderate ~7% in FY24 (vs. estimated 11% in FY23). While direct tax and GST buoyancy could stay healthy in FY24 and RBI dividend could improve, we could see moderation in other components of indirect taxes, marginally lower PSU dividend and spectrum-related telecom receipts. The Disinvestment pipeline has also cooled off after the LIC stake sale.

The main reason behind this phenomenon is the uncertainty regarding the Budget. Investors tend to tread lightly before the event. Profit booking by the market participants causes the prices to plunge a week before the Budget, discounting all the fears that investors have.

With over 60 insurers between life and general insurance and a large number of them being joint ventures, there is really an acute shortage of local partners, who either have the ability or the inclination to get into this space.

Hours after the rupee was left to the market forces to decide its worth, the IMF announced that its delegation will be visiting Pakistan from Jan 31 to Feb 9 to discuss its 9th review of a bailout package agreed for $6 billion in 2019, and topped up to $7 billion last year.

The Finance Minister should incentivise retail participation by bringing some tax advantages for those who at least are investing in the sovereign bonds and state development loan papers (SDLS), Thus, getting more retail money for government fundraising and meeting its fiscal deficit.

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A big hurdle for the stock will come next week when the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates and will give a sense of the path forward for future hikes. A hawkish tone could derail Tesla’s strong start to the year.

Accreditation of investors has been introduced by SEBI as a way to determine investor maturity and therefore reduce investment ticket size. With the increase in private wealth and the growth of HNIs, it is necessary to provide a significant policy push to this initiative. If accreditation becomes “digital” and hence instantaneously verifiable, the impact on deepening AIF penetration could be transformational.

To accelerate the growth of railways under the NRP 2030 I am increasing the budget to INR 2 lakh crore. The focus will be on accelerating the Dedicated Freight Corridors and also increasing the pace of the Bullet Train (high speed) and Vande Bharat (semi-high speed) railway projects.