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Indian markets ended positive after US paused reciprocal tariffs, easing investor concerns. Smallcaps recovered late, while IT, metals, and capital goods rallied. Focus now shifts to India-US trade talks, Q4 earnings, and RBI’s stance amid cooling inflation.

Edelweiss Mutual Fund’s Trideep Bhattacharya expects limited direct impact of US tariffs on India but warns of global ripple effects. He prefers healthcare and domestic consumption sectors amid volatility, citing their resilience to global headwinds and currency risks.

ICICI Bank’s B Prasanna says Indian bonds may not remain immune if US yields spike amid global uncertainty. While local yields react less, a sharp move in US rates could trigger short-term pressure on Indian government bonds.

Jefferies Chris Wood has raised India’s allocation to Overweight in his Asia Pacific ex-Japan portfolio, citing the country s macro resilience amid global trade tensions and economic slowdown. The move, backed by analyst Mahesh Nandurkar, reflects India s lower exposure to US-China demand, easing oil prices, low FPI weights, and the RBI’s pro-growth stance. IT and metals remain underweight.

International gold prices also surged to a new record above $3,200 following a short period of consolidation last week, as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid persistent market volatility and trade tensions.

Swaminathan Aiyar suggests that while a financial meltdown has been averted due to bond market pressures on Trump, a US recession is highly probable. China will also feel recessionary effects, impacting global economies, including India, more significantly than bilateral tariffs. Uncertainty prevails as trade wars persist, with potential negative consequences for equities and global growth.

India Inc. faces a forgettable fiscal year 2025 with muted growth and margin pressures, as Nifty earnings growth remains subpar at 1-2%. Banks, commodity chemicals, and consumer staples are expected to have a subdued quarter, while diversified financials, healthcare, and telecom offer a silver lining.

Axis MF s Shreyash Devalkar suggests largecaps are fairly priced, while mid and smallcaps, despite growth potential, need further valuation correction. He notes earning downgrades are following stock price falls, with FY26 downgrades largely priced in. Devalkar favors financial services and pharmaceuticals, reducing exposure to export-oriented and industrial names, emphasizing a stock-picker market driven by risk-reward frameworks.

Indian stock markets witnessed a significant rally as the Nifty50 and Sensex surged, fueled by the U.S. decision to suspend additional tariffs on India. This move eased trade disruption concerns, supported by a weakening dollar and a broad-based rally across sectors like metal and pharma. Declining crude oil prices further contributed to the positive market sentiment.